INTRODUCTION: Osteoarthritis is one of the most common types of musculoskeletal diagnoses also among working-age populations, and often leads to long-term sickness absence (SA) spells or even disability pension (DP).

THE AIM: was to identify future trajectories of days of SA and/or DP among people with a new SA spell due to osteoarthritis that became ≥21 long, and to investigate sociodemographic and morbidity characteristics of individuals in identified trajectories.

METHODS: tests and multinomial logistic regression.

RESULTS: We identified five trajectories of SA/DP days: 'fast decrease' (36% of the cohort), 'medium fast decrease' (29%), 'slow decrease' (15%), 'fluctuating' (12%) and 'late decrease' (8%). Individuals in the two trajectories who still had SA/DP days at end of follow-up (late decrease and fluctuating) were more likely to be older, born outside the EU and have indicators of more severe morbidity than those in the other trajectories.

CONCLUSION: Five trajectories of future SA/DP days were identified; 80% of the cohort belonged to trajectories with no SA/DP by the end of follow-up. Identifying trajectories of future SA/DP provides new insights regarding the developments of SA/DP over time among people on SA due to osteoarthritis; not only days in the initial SA spell but also in new spells during follow-up need to be included for a better understanding.