BACKGROUND: Even though it is well known that disability due to MS is highly associated with employment status, the long-term longitudinal perspective on sickness absence and disability pension over the MS trajectory is lacking. In addition, further knowledge of risk factors for future disability pension is needed.

OBJECTIVES: To explore long-term longitudinal changes in the prevalence of sickness absence and disability pension in people with MS (PwMS), as well as to explore associations between disease-specific factors, contextual factors and functioning, and the outcome of future full-time disability pension.

METHODS: A prospective, population-based survival cohort study, with a nine year follow-up, including 114 PwMS was conducted by combining face-to-face collected data and register-based data.

RESULTS: The prevalence of full-time disability pension increased from 20% to 50%, however 24% of the PwMS had no disability pension at all at end of follow-up. Sex, age, disease severity and impaired manual dexterity were associated with future full-time disability pension.

CONCLUSIONS: The large increase in prevalence of PwMS on full-time disability pension during the MS trajectory, calls for the development and implementation of evidence-based interventions, aiming at keeping PwMS in the work force. Modifiable factors, such as manual dexterity should be targeted in such interventions.